Inflation Expectations in Uzbekistan Rise Slightly in February

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — In February 2026, inflation expectations in Uzbekistan saw a slight increase, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.

The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months remained largely unchanged at 11.2%, while the median expectation, which had declined in January, rebounded to 9.9%.

By region, the highest inflation expectations were recorded in Tashkent at 12.7%, followed by the Fergana and Samarkand regions at 11.8% each, and Andijan at 11.6%. The most moderate forecasts came from respondents in Namangan, Bukhara, and Kashkadarya regions, with expectations of 10%, 10.2%, and 10.3% respectively.

Sectoral analysis revealed that households in the services sector (13.8%), construction (13.4%), and catering (12.9%) expressed the greatest concerns about rising prices. More moderate projections were reported by agricultural workers (10%), pensioners (10.2%), and students (10.3%).

Income level also influenced expectations. Respondents with monthly incomes above 20 million soms forecasted an average price increase of 14.2%, while those earning 10–15 million soms expected 13.4%. Citizens with incomes between 15–20 million soms aligned with the national average at 11.2%, whereas individuals earning below 2 million soms or 2–4 million soms reported lower expectations of 9.7% and 10.6% respectively.

The main factors shaping these expectations were rising utility tariffs (cited by 44% of participants), increased energy costs (40%), and currency fluctuations (28%), which were ranked ahead of transport costs (25%).

Among businesses, median inflation expectations slightly declined to 9.6%, 0.2 percentage points below January levels, while the average remained steady at 10.8%. The highest projections were in Tashkent (12.4%), followed by Samarkand (12.1%) and Surkhandarya (11.2%). Entrepreneurs in Navoi, Namangan, and Syrdarya reported the lowest expectations, ranging from 9.9% to 10.1%.

By industry, the highest inflation concerns were in IT (12.7%), education (12.6%), and construction (11.8%), while the lowest were in agriculture and catering (10%). As with households, businesses identified utility tariffs as the key driver of price growth (44%), followed by energy costs (42%), transport expenses (34%), and currency fluctuations (31%).

The survey highlights that while overall inflation expectations remain moderate, regional, sectoral, and income-based differences continue to shape perceptions of price pressures in Uzbekistan.