Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Doubts about the need and slow pace of vaccination are a long-standing problem in the healthcare system. According to the survey results of the Republican Center for the Study of Public Opinion "Izhtimoiy fikr", 53.2% of respondents showed readiness to be vaccinated, 36.5% - refuse vaccination, 10.3% - did not make a final decision. Vaccine refusal can prolong the pandemic and require social distancing and isolation, which in turn can lead to dire socioeconomic consequences.

Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR) conducted a study to assess the impact of doubts about vaccination on the dynamics of the epidemiological situation in the country. The results of the study showed that mass vaccination of the population will reduce the mortality rate by 40% over the period under review. In addition, in these conditions, it will be possible to reduce the rate of spread of the virus from 3.8 (every 10 infected people infected an additional 38 people on average) to 0.83 (the number of reproduction must be less than 1 to stop the spread of the virus).

Description of the model and calculations

For the analysis, the IFMR experts applied the classic epidemiological model SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) developed by Kermak and McKendrick by integrating it with the macroeconomic model. This model consists of 9 differential equations that reflect the patterns of epidemics and their impact on vulnerable groups of the population. The criteria for identifying groups are the fact that a person is infected and his desire to be vaccinated, as well as the fact that the infected population has recovered.

The model analyzes a period of 18 months. This extended SIR model is based on the following assumptions:

the population can never be completely isolated from sources of infection;

only those who are at risk of infection and who do not doubt the need for vaccination are vaccinated;

vaccination and recovery from illness do not guarantee lifelong immunity;

quarrelsome and vaccinated persons may be infected a second time;

doubters can change their minds over time and change their negative attitude to a desire to get vaccinated.

The model developed at the institute makes it possible to assess the impact of the rate (level) of vaccination on the number of cases of infection and deaths from coronavirus infection, as well as on individual economic indicators of the country’s economy (including budget expenditures for the purchase of vaccines and for the treatment of patients with covid).

As shown by the simulation results, in the absence of vaccination and in conditions of non-compliance with any restrictive measures (social distance, wearing masks, hygiene measures), the rate of spread of the virus would be 3.8 (every 10 infected people, on average, an additional 38 people were infected), and the pandemic reached would be its third peak on the 110th day of its course. On the other hand, the timely introduction of restrictive measures contributed to the maintenance of lower rates of virus infection and mortality.

Since the beginning of vaccination, the rate of spread of the virus has decreased from 3.8 to 2.9 (for the period from April 1 to June 22, the rate of vaccination was 10.5-12.5 thousand people per day). If this rate of vaccination is maintained, until the end of November this year. years 3.43 million people would be fully vaccinated. If the willingness of people to be vaccinated increases from 50% to 70% of the population, then the number of vaccinated persons would already be 5.31 million people, and the mortality rate would decrease by 6% over the specified period.

During the period from June 23 to August 2, the rate of vaccination increased to 25-35 thousand people. in a day. If they remained the same, the rate of spread would decrease from 2.9 to 2.2, and the number of vaccinated persons would reach by the end of November of this year. 6.5 million people If the readiness of people to be vaccinated increases from 50% to 70% of the population, then the number of those vaccinated during this period will be 10.03 million people, the mortality rate will decrease by 7% in comparison with the mortality rate at 50% vaccination.

To achieve this goal, vaccinate 70% of the population by the end of November of this year, it will be necessary to maintain the rate of vaccination that was observed for the period from August 3 to August 13 (50-72 thousand people per day). In this case, as shown by the simulation results, the rate of spread of the virus will decrease from 2.2 to 0.83 (the number of reproduction must be less than 1 to stop the spread of the virus). At the same time, 14 million people should be vaccinated by November 30 (representing 70% of the adult population to be vaccinated). If the willingness of people to be vaccinated increases from 50% to 70% of the population, then the number of people vaccinated during this period will be 21.19 million people, the mortality rate will decrease by 40% compared to the previous scenario. This will require two policy measures: first, to maintain high rates of vaccination (50-72 thousand people per day). Second, to ensure increased vaccination readiness through education and other incentives.

The main conclusion is that public doubts about vaccination can have a significant negative impact on the dynamics of the pandemic. This is directly related to the number of deaths in the country. The rapid introduction of the vaccine through a conscious attitude to one’s health will allow society to achieve collective immunity in a short period of time, increase its economic activity, and reduce the risks of introducing repeated restrictive measures in response to the spread of new variants of the virus.

Hayot Saydaliev, head of the IFMR group

Naylya Ibragimova, Project Manager, IFMR

Sergey Vasilievich Chepel, Chief Researcher, IFMR