IMF Says Uzbekistan’s Economy Remains Dynamic, Warns of Inflation Risks

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has completed its visit to Uzbekistan, held from 17 to 25 November 2025. During the visit, the team led by Yasser Abdih met with government officials to discuss the current economic situation, development prospects and key policy priorities.

In a concluding statement, Mr. Abdih noted that Uzbekistan’s economy continues to show strong momentum. Real GDP grew by 7.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared with the same period last year, driven by high levels of investment and household consumption. Inflation has slowed: as of late October, headline inflation stood at 7.8% and core inflation at 6.6%.

“Retail lending continues to expand rapidly — as of September, annual growth reached 23%, while corporate lending remains more moderate,” the IMF statement said. The current account deficit has narrowed due to strong gold demand, robust export performance and substantial remittance inflows. International reserves remain high, at the equivalent of 12 months of potential imports.

The mission’s outlook remains positive: real GDP growth is expected to exceed 7% in 2025 and reach around 6% in 2026, supported by stable increases in consumption and investment. According to the IMF forecast, inflation will gradually decline to the Central Bank’s target of 5% by the end of 2027.

However, the IMF also highlighted several risks: excessive government spending — including revenue from gold, expansion of preferential lending programs, and external challenges such as a slowing global economy, geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility. At the same time, faster structural reforms, stronger remittance inflows and higher gold prices could improve the outlook.

The mission recommended maintaining the consolidated budget deficit at the target level of 3% in both 2025 and 2026, limiting the use of additional revenues, broadening the tax base and improving tax administration.

Monetary policy received particular attention: since March 2025, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept the policy rate at 14%. The mission welcomed steps to increase exchange rate flexibility and recommended maintaining a tight stance until inflation stabilizes at lower levels.

The IMF also stressed the importance of accelerating financial sector reforms, restructuring major state-owned enterprises, developing the private sector and advancing reforms in corporate governance and anti-corruption efforts.

“Rapid economic growth combined with high gold prices creates favorable conditions for strengthening macro-financial stability, enhancing economic resilience and advancing structural reforms,” Mr. Abdih concluded.