Gold Rally Provides Support for the Uzbek Soum

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 18 September 2025, the Uzbek soum continued to strengthen against the US dollar, which stabilized at 12,249 soums.

This represents a 0.86% gain for the week. In the previous week, the increase was a modest 0.04%, following earlier gains of 0.32% and 0.40%, respectively. The current wave of appreciation is developing unusually: initially it was partly supported by the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble, and later it gained momentum from domestic factors—primarily the growth of income from gold exports.

For Uzbekistan’s economy, this has become a key driver: nearly one-third of the country’s export earnings come from precious metals. The rise in gold prices has ensured an inflow of foreign currency and pushed the dollar exchange rate to its lowest level in the past two years. For importers and consoumers, the “gold” rally is beneficial, as it makes imports cheaper. However, for exporters, a too-strong soum creates risks by reducing the competitiveness of domestic products on global markets.

Windfall revenue from gold is best directed into reserves rather than current consoumption. Otherwise, there remains a risk of reverse pressure on the exchange rate and accelerated inflation. Long-term stability of the soum can only be achieved through structural reforms, economic diversification, and the creation of transparent mechanisms for managing surplus revenues.

The dollar/soum rate is expected to remain in the range of 12,100–12,600 soums over the coming week.

Anna Bodrova, Alpari Analyst