Global Air Travel Demand to Double by 2050, IATA Says

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its Long Term Demand Projections (LTDP), forecasting that global passenger demand will more than double by 2050.

Under the baseline scenario, passenger traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is expected to grow from 9 trillion in 2024 to 20.8 trillion by 2050, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% over the period. In a more optimistic scenario, RPK could reach 21.9 trillion with a CAGR of 3.3%, while a conservative scenario projects 19.5 trillion RPK with a 2.9% annual growth rate. Differences reflect assumptions on economic growth, demographics, aviation fuel costs, the global energy transition, and infrastructure development.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized: “Passenger demand will more than double by mid-century. This is positive for the global economy, creating new jobs and opportunities. Sustainable growth requires effective infrastructure, market access, harmonized standards, and a transition to cleaner energy sources.”

Regional growth is expected to vary significantly. The highest rates are forecast for the Asia-Pacific and Africa regions, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively, while Europe and North America will grow moderately at 2.5% and 2.8%. Intra-African routes are projected to expand fastest at 4.9%, followed by Africa–Asia-Pacific routes at 4.5%, and intra-Asia-Pacific flights at 3.9%.

The LTDP report highlights two long-term trends: structural shifts in demand following the COVID-19 pandemic, which will not be fully offset by 2050, and a gradual decline in the long-term growth rate—from 6.1% annually between 1972–1998 to 3.1% between 2024–2050—as aviation markets mature.

The projections are based on IATA’s econometric model using more than 500,000 observations across 41,000 routes from 2011–2024. Key factors include population size, employment levels, flight frequency, aircraft size, and real GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity. The model also accounts for the global energy transition and demonstrates approximately 98% accuracy when tested against historical data.