Fitch: Global Airport Traffic to Remain Resilient in 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — According to Fitch Ratings, global passenger traffic and airports’ non-aviation revenues are expected to remain resilient in 2026.

The sector will be supported by strong demand from the middle class, active leisure travel, short-haul flights, and the gradual expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs) into new markets, which in turn promotes the development of secondary airports.

However, Fitch warns of potential operational disruptions, including the ongoing effects of geopolitical tensions that could trigger regional volatility.

Overall, the forecast for the global airport sector in 2026 remains neutral, reflecting expectations of continued passenger traffic consolidation. Supportive airfares and easy access to financing provide additional backing for the industry.

Regional Outlook:

North America: Moderate traffic growth is expected due to external factors slowing development from record levels. Demand remains strong, but air traffic control (ATC) staffing shortages and operational disruptions pose challenges.

Europe: Revenue growth is supported by moderate fare increases and stable retail activity, including rental income, dynamic parking pricing, and real estate stability. Revenues are projected to be in the mid- to low-single-digit range.

APAC (Asia–Pacific): Traffic is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising middle-class demand in developing countries and the expansion of LCCs into new markets, enhancing intra-regional connectivity.

Latin America: Traffic growth is moderate and uneven. Mexican airports may benefit from the FIFA World Cup, whereas Brazil is expected to see modest growth due to route reorganizations.

Fitch highlights potential constraints such as aircraft availability, technical issues, infrastructure limitations at key airports, macroeconomic slowdown, and geopolitical conflicts as factors that could affect global traffic. ATC staff shortages in Europe and North America could also lead to operational disruptions during peak seasons.

Investments in terminal expansions, runway improvements, and secondary hub development will require financing access and cost control. Given the sector’s credit profile, market participants are likely to remain active in capital markets to maintain liquidity.

Rising wages, maintenance, and security costs will keep operational expenses high, while EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable. Cost-recovery systems in North America will help bolster liquidity and offset pressure on debt levels.

In Europe, large regulated airports such as Heathrow, ADP, and Aena may face constraints in forecasting future cash flows due to regulatory reforms.