Fitch Expects Slower Growth for Financial and Leasing Companies in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Fitch Ratings’ latest report forecasts a slowdown in the growth of financial and leasing company portfolios in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

The agency cites rising interest rates, higher inflation, and tighter regulatory oversight as factors constraining both credit demand and lending capacity.

Fitch notes that stricter regulation, slower growth, and rising operational and funding costs will put pressure on non-bank financial institutions’ credit profiles. Nevertheless, companies with resilient business models, strong underlying profitability, and, in many cases, conservative leverage maintain solid creditworthiness.

Regulatory challenges include caps on interest rates, stricter prudential requirements, and enhanced oversight of the microfinance sector. Fitch expects continued market consolidation as microfinance organizations seek to improve cost efficiency, expand operations, and increase fee-based income. Many firms are likely to apply for banking licenses to strengthen their positions in the growing consumer credit market.

Access to funding remains limited amid rising rates and reduced government-subsidized lending. However, wide interest spreads and the short-term nature of assets, whose rates adjust faster than liabilities, help maintain profitability.

Companies with large client bases, proven business models, and diversified funding sources generally receive standalone ratings in the “B” category, while those supported by shareholders are typically rated “BB” or “BBB.”

In 2025, Fitch confirmed ratings for seven financial and leasing companies and assigned initial ratings to Mogo Kazakhstan, Robocash.kz, and Uzum Holding Ltd.

The ratings of TechnoLeasing and Astana Motors Finance were upgraded to “B” with a Stable outlook, while the rating for Arnur Credit was revised to Positive due to business expansion and improved operating conditions. Robocash.kz was placed on Rating Watch Negative following a temporary suspension of its microfinance license.