Eurasian Development Bank: Uzbekistan’s GDP to Grow 6.8% in 2026 amid Slowing Inflation

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028, highlighting Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies.

According to the bank’s analysts, strong investment activity and resilient domestic demand will remain the primary drivers, allowing Uzbekistan’s economy to outperform global growth rates.

EDB forecasts Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.8% in 2026. This positions the country third among EDB member states, following Kyrgyzstan (9.3%) and Tajikistan (8.1%). Growth is expected to remain stable in the following years, with GDP projected at 6.4% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2028.

Inflation is expected to gradually slow. While inflation for 2025 is projected at 9.8%, it is forecasted to decrease to 7.5% by the end of 2026. In the medium term, inflation is expected to move toward target levels of 6.7% in 2027 and 5.8% in 2028.

In terms of monetary policy, the EDB expects a gradual reduction in the key interest rate, averaging 13.9% in 2026 (slightly up from 13.8% in 2025), with further declines to 12.4% in 2027 and 11.6% in 2028.

The bank also anticipates moderate volatility in the national currency. The average exchange rate of the Uzbek soum to the US dollar is projected at 12,647 soums in 2026, gradually weakening to 14,100 soums in 2027 and 15,100 soums in 2028.

Investment remains the main growth driver for Uzbekistan, with capital primarily directed toward manufacturing, energy, and construction sectors. Development of transport and logistics infrastructure and strengthening economic ties within the Eurasian space are expected to provide additional impetus to the Uzbek economy.

“Investment activity and domestic demand will continue to be the key growth drivers for most countries in the region, despite moderate global economic growth and persistently high interest rates,” the bank’s official statement notes.