EDB: Uzbekistan’s Economy Accelerates to 7.7% Growth in 2025

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan’s economy accelerated in 2025, expanding by 7.7% compared to 6.7% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) macroeconomic review. Inflationary pressures eased amid tight monetary policy, while the national currency strengthened due to high export revenues and an increase in remittances.

Key growth drivers included retail trade, which rose 14.7%, the services sector at 14.8%, and construction at 14.2%, highlighting the significant role of domestic demand. Industrial output grew 6.8%, with manufacturing up 7.1%, reflecting ongoing industrialization. The extractive sector rose 5.1%, electricity generation 3.1%, and agriculture 4.4%.

Investment activity also strengthened, with fixed capital investments increasing 10.5%. The largest share went to manufacturing at 27.2%, followed by energy (13.3%), mining (9.9%), agriculture (8.7%), and residential construction (7.9%). A major driver was the surge in foreign direct investment (FDI), which grew 46.9%, accounting for 40.5% of total investment.

Economic momentum remained high at the start of 2026. In January, industrial production rose 7.8% year-on-year, and retail trade increased 14.7%, surpassing average growth levels of the previous year. Analysts project GDP growth of around 6.7% for 2026.

Inflation showed a stable downward trend, declining from 9.8% at the end of 2024 to 7.3% in December 2025 and 7.2% in January 2026, the lowest level in nine years. Tight monetary conditions, a strengthening national currency, and import price dynamics contributed to the slowdown.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan maintained its key policy rate at 14% since March 2025, confirming the level unchanged at its January 28, 2026 meeting. The real rate is approximately 6.8%, reflecting the restrictive stance of monetary policy. As inflation approaches the 5% target, a gradual reduction to around 13% is possible in the second half of 2026.

In 2025, the Uzbek sum strengthened against the US dollar for the first time, appreciating 6.8% from 12,905 to 12,025 per dollar. Support came from record gold export revenues of US$9.9 billion, rising remittances, FDI inflows of US$19 billion, and a weaker US dollar in global markets.

International reserves continued to reach historical highs, totaling US$75.1 billion as of February 1, 2026, up 13.2% in January and 82% since early 2025. The increase was largely due to rising global gold prices above US$5,000 per ounce, with total gold reserves reaching 399 tons.

Fiscal conditions improved, with the consolidated budget deficit falling to 2.1% of GDP from 3.1% a year earlier. Budget revenues exceeded plans by 16.6% due to favorable gold prices, while expenditures were 12.8% above target. Overall, the deficit was 20.4% below projected levels, maintaining a supportive fiscal stance.

Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover rose 20.7% in 2025. Exports increased 24%, outpacing imports, which grew 18.5%. Despite this, the trade deficit widened to US$13.6 billion from US$12 billion due to imports reaching US$47.4 billion versus US$33.8 billion in exports.

The wider trade deficit was offset by a sharp increase in remittances, significantly improving the current account position. Its deficit fell from US$3.1 billion in January–September 2024 to US$0.2 billion over the same period in 2025, enhancing the economy’s resilience to external shocks.