Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Despite efforts to maintain a stable food supply, in countries with underdeveloped greenhouse farming, agricultural efficiency still depends on the seasonality of the weather. In the context of global climate change, there is an increasing need to mitigate the effects of reduced rainfall, develop drought-resistant crop varieties, and develop and disseminate technologies from cultivation to ensure food security.

The pronounced impact of reduced rainfall is particularly felt in the epicenter of the global food crisis, located in the south of Africa’s Sahara Desert. Agriculture is the main activity of poor households here.

In this regard, Eriksen, Ingram and Liverman (2009) found in their research that climate change played an important role in the global food price increase in 2008. Research by Dhubhadela, Sunil & Azzam, Azzeddine & Stockton, Matta (2015) found that rising prices for meat and meat products were correlated with reduced rainfall. According to them, the impact of the drought on meat prices is due to two factors. On the one hand, due to drought, the possibility of grazing on pastures is reduced, and, on the other hand, the cultivation of corn and soybeans, the main source of nutrition in the production of beef meat, is reduced.

According to the results of the analysis carried out by IPMI experts, the increase in meat prices in Uzbekistan is seasonal. High growth rates of meat are observed in July, August, September and October. For example, in 2019, the price of beef meat in these months increased by 3.6%, 7.6%, 5.8% and 2.1%, and in 2020 - by 0.6%, 1.5%, 3.3% and 5.9%. In December-January, a decrease or slight increase in prices for beef meat is observed in Uzbekistan (Figure 1).

The dynamics of fluctuations in meat prices is closely related to the amount of precipitation and air temperature at the end of February, March and April. This is the most important factor in the germination of fodder crops in early spring, their growth and maturation in the future. In particular, low rainfall and sunny days at the end of February and March are reflected in the insufficient growth of fodder crops, which, in the end, can lead to a shortage of fodder.

The average amount of precipitation in Uzbekistan in February-April decreased from 118.0 mm. in 2019 to 92.4 mm. in 2020. The results of a study conducted according to data for 2018-2020 show that in Uzbekistan, the change in precipitation in 22% of cases coincided with the period of change in prices for beef meat.

For reference, it should be noted that the amount of precipitation is defined as the sum of the approximate water equivalent of rain and snowfall over a certain period of time. For freshly fallen snow, a relative factor of 0.1 is applied, i.e. 10 inches (25.4 cm) of fresh snow equals one inch (2.54 cm) of rainfall. Thus, among the regions of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Namangan, Surkhandarya, Jizzakh regions are regions with relatively the highest amount of precipitation, the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi and Bukhara regions occupy the last positions in this list.

According to the Climate Research Unit, the country’s peak rainfall was in 1969. At that time, the average annual rainfall in Tashkent region was 77.1 mm, Namangan - 66.8 mm, Syrdarya - 58.0 mm, Jizzakh - 57.5 mm. In recent years, the maximum amount of precipitation in Uzbekistan was observed in 2003. Compared to 2020, the difference in the level of average annual precipitation is noted in Tashkent - 22.9 mm, Namangan - 19.0 mm, Fergana - 15.9 mm and Jizzakh regions - 10.7 mm, i.e. regions with high rainfall.

S. Mahmudov,

Chief Researcher, IPMI

M. Jamalov,

Senior Research Fellow, IPMI