Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - Employment of the population continued to rapidly return to previous levels. Local shortages of goods decreased in June.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), together with the World Bank, conducted a study on the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 as part of the Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan project.

The project "Listening to Citizens of Uzbekistan" (L2CU) envisages the study of the socio-economic state of households throughout the Republic of Uzbekistan through a survey of 1,500 households. Since 2019, the project has conducted 22 rounds of surveys. Last survey was conducted on June 21, 2020.

Employment rate

In June, employment continued to return to previous levels at an accelerated pace. While the share of households with at least one family member in employment fell sharply by 40 percentage points in April, it subsequently recovered by 33 percentage points in June. However, the number of respondents who reported that someone in the household “lost their job or stopped working” rose from 1 percent to 19 percent in April and dropped again to 3 percent in June. Almost all respondents indicated that work breaks are temporary. However, employment rates are still lower than in 2019 and trends before the COVID-19 pandemic.

How the COVID-19 pandemic affected the situation in the economy of Uzbekistan.

The decline in employment was the most noticeable and lasting among the self-employed. The share of respondents who indicated they are self-employed fell 67 percent in April and continued to decline 26 percent in June. On the contrary, the employment of persons working for wages (editor’s note of employees), in June, on average returned to the level of 2019, while the value was reached faster among men than among women.

Job data shows signs of recovery in the economy, as evidenced by the number of new job vacancies following the outbreak, which fell 80 percent. The industries in which this decline was the largest compared to the same period in 2019 included tourism, recreation and entertainment (-95 percent), bars and restaurants (-91 percent), and education (-85 percent). Even among the least affected occupations, the decline was 50 percent or more compared to the same period last year, with a rapid recovery in the medical and construction industries in June.

Social support

An estimated 3.8 million citizens have received some form of emergency support. About 11 percent of citizens indicated that they received direct support after the onset of the pandemic. Most of the aid - 92 percent - came in the form of in-kind benefits or vouchers, and was more common in urban areas. Receiving aid is strongly associated with lower income levels, suggesting that programs disproportionately targeted vulnerable households.

Financial well-being

Households that lost income were the most likely to report an increase in spending and the most concerned about the economic impact of the pandemic. About 53 percent of respondents report significant changes in their spending. Among them, 60-65 percent indicated that they spent more than usual in the last 30 days, while the rest indicated that they spent less than usual. The increased costs are associated with the loss of income during the crisis.

Households whose well-being was higher before the crisis turned out to be more resistant to the impact. The respondents who said their spending had gone up were among those who consumed the most before quarantine.

Shortage of goods

Local shortages of goods decreased in June. About 1 percent of respondents indicated that their area is out of stock, significantly lower than the 16 percent reported in April. In this case, most often it was about food products, especially flour, along with information about price increases. Indications that drugs and masks are out of stock fell from 5 percent in April to nearly zero in June.

Migration and remittances

The share of farms receiving remittances has recovered after falling in early June, but is significantly less than in 2019. In April, the share of households receiving any remittances dropped by half compared to the same period last year, after which it recovered slightly in May and June. For those who received remittances, the average remittance size fell by 21 percent (in UZS, adjusted for inflation) in April, but then rose in May following the strengthening of the Russian ruble.

A significantly smaller proportion of respondents indicated that family members work abroad. In April, the share of households with members working abroad was 3 percentage points lower than in the same period in 2019. Among those still abroad, the percentage of actively employed persons has dropped from 88 to about 73 percent. The gap between 2019 and 2020 widened in May and June, at a time when migration has traditionally increased seasonally. Between April and June, the proportion of households in the survey considering migrating abroad in the future fell to almost zero.

Opinions and behaviors of people

Concerns about the impact of the coronavirus remain high. Almost all of the respondents indicated that they know what COVID-19 is, and over 75 percent said they are “very familiar” with COVID-19. Concerns about the potential impact of COVID-19 declined slightly between April and June, with the proportion of those who said they were “very concerned” about health risks dropped from 64 percent to 60 percent, and those who said they were “very concerned” about the economic impact dropped from 61 to 56 percent.

An increasing number of citizens say they are aware of the government’s official statements regarding COVID made over the past week. In April, 75 percent said they had heard of official announcements, and the figure rose to 80 percent in June. Almost all pointed out that television was the main source of information. In the post-April period, social media (12 percent) and text messages (15 percent) were also popular sources. Only a few citizens indicated that they learn about official announcements from newspapers, radio or from friends.

About 80 percent indicated that their routines have changed during the pandemic. Most often, this meant wearing masks (98 percent), reduced visits to family and friends (84 percent), more frequent hand washing (81 percent), reduced handshaking, kissing, greeting (77 percent), social distancing (72 percent) , less time spent working outside the home (51 percent), self-isolation (17 percent). Almost none of the respondents answered that they had recently visited crowded places.

Respondents report a high and growing level of compliance with handwashing requirements. The bottom quintile of those surveyed noted that they wash their hands an average of 5.5 times a day, up from 4.8 times in April. The average quintile of those surveyed noted that they wash their hands on average 10 times a day.