Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) –– The GDP growth of Uzbekistan in 2020, according to preliminary estimates by the Central Bank of the country, will be 1.5% -2.5% against 5.2% −5.5% previously forecasted. This is stated in the Central Bank’s review of monetary policy for the I quarter.

The slowdown in the Uzbek economy is associated with a decrease in economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The most significant slowdown in growth is forecasted in the sectors of tourism, hotel business, international transportation, entertainment, sports, exclusive services, etc.,” the regulator’s report said.

The Central Bank notes that current calculations show that in 2020 final consumption expenditures may decrease by 1.4%, and the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation will slow down from 34% in 2019 to 6.4% in 2020.

“At the same time, rising gold prices and an increase in the export of fruits and vegetables will have a positive impact on the revenues of the state budget and business entities, and to some extent offset the effects of reducing tax revenues,” the regulator said.

The creation of a crisis management fund and its replenishment, including by attracting funds from international financial institutions, as well as the accumulation of funds in special funds with their further direction to help that part of the population that lost income during the quarantine period, will help mitigate the negative consequences of the pandemic, noted in the report of the Central Bank.

The regulator expects that amid worsening external economic conditions, the volume of cross-border money transfers entering the country will significantly decrease by the end of the year compared to last year.

According to preliminary estimates of the Central Bank, the volume of cross-border money transfers will decrease by 30-35% compared to last year. At the same time, the decline in remittances in April-July (month-to-month of the same period last year) can reach up to 50%, followed by a gradual recovery. (In 2019, the volume of remittances reached US$6.01 billion.)