Central Bank of Uzbekistan Maintains Key Interest Rate at 14% Per Annum

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — At its meeting on 24 October 2025, the Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided to maintain the policy rate at 14% per annum.

Economic activity trends continued in the third quarter of 2025. Relatively tight monetary conditions, the exclusion of last year’s inflationary factors from calculations, and the stabilizing effect of exchange rate strengthening on consumer prices contributed to a slowdown in annual inflation in September.

At the same time, under conditions of active aggregate demand, risks of price increases remain, linked to external supply factors and persistently high service inflation. Considering these factors, the Central Bank Board decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 14% per annum.

In September 2025, the overall inflation rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points, reaching 8% year-on-year. Inflation in the food and non-food goods categories slowed to 6.1% year-on-year, contributing to a downward effect. Service inflation, including excluding regulated prices, remains above overall inflation due to demand factors.

Thanks to relatively moderate demand-side pressures under tight monetary conditions, along with the strengthening of the Uzbek sum, core inflation shifted to a downward trend, slowing to 7% year-on-year in September. In particular, the sum’s appreciation contributes to slower imported inflation and stabilizes non-food prices.

In recent months, the share of goods and services in the consumer basket with slower price growth compared to the same period last year has increased, indicating a broader price stabilization trend.

In September, inflation expectations among households and businesses continued to decline, though they remain above current and projected inflation rates.

Taking these factors into account, the year-end inflation forecast has been revised downward, expected to be around 8%.

High economic growth and investment activity in Q3 are expected to continue into the next quarter, with real GDP growth for the year projected at approximately 7–7.5%.

Rising real incomes and active retail lending support purchasing power and increase consumer demand, which may maintain inflationary pressures in the economy.

At the same time, risks remain from secondary effects of energy price liberalization and potential supply shocks in certain goods over the coming months.

Under these conditions, maintaining tight monetary policy is necessary to ensure the continued downward trend in inflation. Relatively tight monetary conditions help balance aggregate demand, preserve the attractiveness of savings, optimize credit growth, align resource pricing in the money market, and reduce the monetary impact on inflation.

Considering the above factors, the Central Bank Board decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 14% per annum.

The Central Bank will maintain sufficient monetary discipline to achieve a medium-term inflation target of 5%.

The next Central Bank Board meeting to review the policy rate is scheduled for 11 December 2025.