Central Asia’s Population Could Exceed 96 Million by 2040 — EDB

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Central Asia’s population could surpass 96 million by 2040, creating significant pressure on the region’s infrastructure, said Nikolay Podguzov, Chairman of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), in an interview with TASS.

According to him, population growth should act as a driver of economic development; however, ensuring comfortable living conditions will require breakthroughs in energy efficiency, modern mobility, and water resource management.

Podguzov emphasized that Central Asia remains one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Forecasts indicate that by 2028, water deficits could range from 5 to 12 cubic kilometers per year.

He added that significant water losses are caused by outdated infrastructure. The EDB is already financing projects aimed at modernizing irrigation, introducing water-saving technologies, and implementing digital water accounting.

The bank’s chairman also highlighted the region’s geographical remoteness from ocean ports — more than 3,000 kilometers — which increases trade costs by 20–40% and reduces annual economic growth by 1.5 percentage points, creating a so-called “distance tax.” According to him, improving transport connectivity is the only way to address this challenge.

In this regard, the EDB proposed the concept of a Eurasian Transport Framework — a network of corridors designed to reduce logistics costs and accelerate trade.

The transport strategy particularly focuses on north–south routes and the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could open access to South Asian and Persian Gulf markets. Currently, the main routes run predominantly east–west.

Podguzov noted that Central Asia is one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. In 2026, the combined economy of the region’s five countries is projected by the EDB to reach $600 billion. However, sustainable development will require simultaneous solutions to key challenges: demographic growth, transport connectivity, and water security.

According to UNICEF, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million by 2025, already placing pressure on regional resources and infrastructure.