Central Asia Is Losing Billions Due to Weak Cooperation: A World Bank Signal from CACCC-2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Central Asia is already incurring direct economic losses due to insufficient regional cooperation, and without a shift in approach, these costs will only increase. This message was delivered by Dmitry Petrin, Head of Regional Programs at the World Bank, during a session on regional cooperation and the outcomes of COP30 at CACCC-2026.

Unlike traditional diplomatic rhetoric, the World Bank’s presentation was built around concrete economic estimates, pointing to a systemic issue: the region continues to manage shared resources within the confines of national boundaries.

The cost of non-cooperation

According to the World Bank, the lack of coordination in the water sector has already cost Central Asian countries at least $4.5 billion in lost income. At the same time, the unrealized potential of electricity trade is estimated at no less than $15 billion.

These figures matter not in isolation, but because they illustrate the scale of missed opportunities. A region where water, energy, and climate risks are inherently transboundary continues to function as a set of fragmented economies.

From climate agenda to regional economics

A defining feature of the World Bank’s approach is the shift from “climate as an obligation” to “climate as a driver of economic growth.”

The institution’s strategy directly links climate resilience with investment attractiveness and job creation.

Its primary focus is on creating an enabling environment for private investment and generating higher-quality jobs, particularly for youth and women.

This marks a fundamental shift: climate is no longer treated as a standalone policy area, but as core development infrastructure.

A region that cannot scale without integration

The World Bank effectively identifies a structural constraint in Central Asia: the lack of integration limits the scalability of solutions.

The response is a transition toward a multi-phase programmatic approach, where national projects are complemented by regional components, knowledge-sharing mechanisms are institutionalized, and cross-country coordination is strengthened.

This architecture is designed to address a key regional gap — the disconnect between national policymaking and the transboundary nature of resources.

Investment portfolio: concentration and imbalance

As of April 2026, the World Bank’s portfolio in Central Asia totals $10.3 billion across 79 projects, yet the distribution remains uneven. Uzbekistan accounts for $5.5 billion, Tajikistan $1.8 billion, Kyrgyzstan $1.2 billion, Kazakhstan $1.35 billion, while regional programs amount to $565 million.

This distribution highlights a dual trend: while overall investment is increasing, the regional component still lags behind national allocations, despite the cross-border nature of key risks.

Critical pressure points: water, energy, land

Petrin’s remarks clearly outlined the region’s systemic vulnerabilities, including water security, energy resilience, land degradation, and risks related to food security and pandemics.

What unites these areas is that none can be effectively addressed at the level of a single country.

This is why the emphasis on regional cooperation aligns with the broader logic of CACCC-2026, where the focus has shifted from climate commitments (NDC 3.0) to their actual implementation.

Regional programs as instruments of structural change

Key World Bank initiatives — RESILAND CA+, REMIT, WEC, and One Health — function as mechanisms that effectively compel cooperation.

They create shared infrastructure dependencies, enable the formation of integrated markets, particularly in electricity, and build institutional linkages across countries.

In other words, these are not just projects, but an attempt to reshape the underlying architecture of regional interaction.

Conclusion

The central takeaway from the World Bank’s message is clear: Central Asia can no longer afford the cost of fragmentation and cooperation become an economic imperative.

The region is already paying for it in the form of billions lost annually through inefficiencies in energy, water management, and underinvestment.

In this context, regional cooperation is no longer a matter of political will. It is a prerequisite for economic resilience.

Kamila Fayzieva