Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — According to a recent survey conducted by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, inflation expectations among the population and businesses for the next 12 months continued to decline in June this year.

Among the general population, the expected rate of price increases dropped to 13.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from May. For businesses, expectations stood at 11.8%, marking a 1.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month.

The perception of inflation drivers has also shifted. While utility tariffs and fuel and energy prices remain the dominant concerns, their perceived influence has decreased significantly. Meanwhile, a growing number of respondents now consider rising incomes — including wages, pensions, and social benefits scheduled to increase in July and August — as the main cause of inflation.

Specifically, the proportion of citizens attributing inflation to rising incomes increased from 22% to 35%, while among business representatives it rose from 24% to 33%. At the same time, concern over traditional factors declined: 50% of respondents cited utility tariffs as a key issue (down from 57% in May), and only 27% mentioned exchange rate fluctuations (compared to 37% in May). A similar trend was observed among businesses, with 47% and 31%, respectively.

Notably, for the first time in a long period, concerns over the exchange rate have dropped out of the top three drivers of inflation expectations. This shift may be attributed to the stability and appreciation of the Uzbek sum against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year.

Nevertheless, concern over rising energy prices remains high. Nearly every second respondent still considers the increase in fuel and energy costs a major inflationary risk — 45% among the public and 43% among businesses. For comparison, those figures were 49% and 48% in May.

Inflation expectations remain traditionally higher in Tashkent compared to the regions. In the capital, they stood at 15.2% among residents and 13.6% among business leaders. In other provinces, expectations are relatively more restrained.

The highest level of concern was recorded in Syrdarya region, where 39% of respondents believe inflation could exceed 17% by year-end. Even in Tashkent, only 36% shared that view. In contrast, Namangan and Fergana regions showed more optimism — 43% and 41% of respondents there expect inflation to remain within the official forecast range of 8–9%.

Expectations also vary depending on income level. Among citizens earning 2–3 million soums per month, inflation expectations are at 12.2%. In the 7–10 million soums income bracket, expectations rise to 14.2%, and among those earning over 15 million soums, they reach 15.1%, which is still lower than the May figure of 16.9%.

Interestingly, among respondents with no monthly income, inflation expectations rose sharply to 14.9% — an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month.

It is also noteworthy that inflation expectations among those earning over 7 million soums have consistently remained above average for the past 12 surveys — indicating a stable trend among higher-income groups.

Inflation expectations reflect the beliefs of citizens and businesses about future price growth — in other words, their forecasts about how much goods and services will become more expensive over the next year.

These expectations influence the behavior of all economic actors. Anticipating price hikes, consumers may start purchasing goods in advance, driving up demand and contributing to actual inflation. Businesses, in turn, often incorporate these expectations into financial planning and pricing strategies. All of this makes inflation expectations a crucial indicator that significantly impacts overall economic dynamics.