Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan’s construction sector is undergoing a transformation driven by global trends and changing demand for residential and commercial real estate. This was stated by Grigory Rubin, Senior Partner and Managing Director of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), during the Plenary Session "Construction Potential of New Uzbekistan" at the 6th International Construction Industry Conference – ICCI 2025.

Global Trends and Their Impact on Uzbekistan

According to BCG’s forecast, by 2030, the global urban population will increase by 5 billion people, leading to a growing demand for housing and infrastructure. However, the issue of affordable housing remains acute.

"Over the past 30 years, housing prices have risen 2-4 times faster than household incomes, making homeownership unattainable for young people," Rubin emphasized. Meanwhile, developers continue to focus on large apartments for sale, whereas demand is shifting toward compact rental units.

He noted that from a demand perspective, more people—especially young individuals—are increasingly opting for smaller apartments and, more importantly, choosing to rent rather than buy in order to maintain mobility. For developers, this represents a fundamentally different business model, one that many are not yet prepared for.

Similar changes are occurring in the commercial segment. By 2025, online retail sales are expected to account for a quarter of total retail turnover, reducing the demand for traditional commercial spaces. This shift requires a complete rethinking of shopping mall concepts and their adaptation to evolving market needs.

Labor Shortages and Technological Solutions

A shortage of skilled labor in construction presents another challenge. "On one hand, this creates difficulties, but on the other, it pushes companies to adopt new technologies," said the BCG representative. In the U.S., for instance, over the past 40 years, the productivity gap between the construction sector and other industries has widened by a factor of 2-3.

Implementing innovations such as big data, predictive analytics, AI, 3D printing, and virtualization could help bridge this gap. However, adoption levels remain low, and greater government support for these initiatives could accelerate progress.

New Formats and Sustainable Construction

The pandemic has altered the way office spaces are used. Average occupancy rates have dropped from 65-70% to 40%, giving rise to the term "zombie offices."

In response, two possible strategies have emerged: repurposing office buildings into residential spaces or developing coworking hubs with additional services. In New York, for example, 600,000 square meters of office space have already been converted into residential units.

Another crucial aspect is sustainable construction. Using eco-friendly materials and energy-efficient technologies can reduce primary energy consumption by 75% and lower heating and electricity demand by 90%.

Despite higher initial construction costs, such projects pay off in the long run due to their operational advantages.

Key Challenges for Uzbekistan

Amid these challenges, Uzbekistan must adapt to a changing market. "It may not be immediately noticeable, but demand is already shifting. Developers who respond to these changes first will gain a competitive edge," Rubin concluded.

Key priorities include reducing construction costs, accelerating digitalization, implementing sustainable technologies, and developing new business models that align with evolving consumer needs.