Average Inflation Forecast for the Coming Year Drops to 11.2% — Central Bank of Uzbekistan

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — In January, public inflation expectations in Uzbekistan continued to decline, according to a report from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan based on survey results.

The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months fell by 0.3 percentage points, reaching 11.2%. The median figure set a multi-month low at 9.5%, down 0.4 percentage points.

Regionally, the highest inflation expectations were recorded in Tashkent at 12.7%, followed by Ferghana Region at 12.3% and the Republic of Karakalpakstan at 12.1%. The lowest projections were noted in Navoi (9.5%), Surkhandarya (9.9%), and Khorezm Region (10%).

By professional groups, the highest forecasts came from civil servants (13%), healthcare workers (12.8%), and industrial laborers (12.6%). More optimistic expectations were reported among agricultural workers (9.4%), trade sector employees (9.6%), and tourism industry staff (9.9%).

Analyzing by income, the highest projections came from citizens earning 30 million sums or more per month, with a forecast of 16.1%. Those earning 20–30 million sums expected 14.5%, 15–20 million sums — 13.5%, while the lowest expectations were among citizens earning 2–4 million sums, at 9.6%.

The primary factor influencing public inflation expectations remained the rise in utility tariffs, cited by 48% of respondents. Other leading concerns included energy prices (47%) and transport costs (30%). Currency fluctuations were noted slightly more frequently than in December (24% versus 23%).

Among entrepreneurs, the expected inflation rate was 10.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from December, while the median forecast rose to 9.8%.

Regionally, the highest business inflation expectations were reported in Surkhandarya (11.6%), Kashkadarya and Karakalpakstan (both 11.1%), with Tashkent falling to fourth place at 11%. The lowest expectations were in Tashkent Region (10.1%), Bukhara (10.3%), and Namangan (10.4%).

By sector, entrepreneurs in transportation (12.8%), education (12.7%), and IT (11.8%) recorded the highest inflation expectations, while the lowest were reported by agribusiness and trade representatives (both 9.8%).

The main factor influencing the business community’s inflation forecasts was rising energy costs (44%), slightly ahead of increases in utility tariffs (43%). Transport expenses were cited less frequently (35%), while currency exchange rate fluctuations were noted more often (26%).