Air Cargo as a “Safety Valve”: IATA on Industry Challenges and Prospects Amid Trade Wars

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has presented a detailed analysis of the global air cargo market, highlighting its critical role in maintaining the resilience of global supply chains amid unprecedented growth in trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions.

The report, delivered by IATA Director of Cargo Brendan Sullivan and Head of Industry Analysis Julia Sirman, noted that 2025 has been a year of dramatic shifts, fundamentally altering trade routes and cargo volumes.

Aviation as a “Shock Absorber” for Global Disruptions

According to Brendan Sullivan, global trade is no longer predictable or stable. Escalating tariffs, particularly between major economies such as the United States and China, are forcing companies to restructure supply, production, and distribution models. “We operate in a world where tariffs and trade tensions reshape global supply chains. Air transport acts as a safety valve when global trade is disrupted,” Sullivan said.

As trade becomes increasingly fragmented, flexibility is no longer optional but essential. Air cargo has the unique ability to quickly adapt, redirect capacity across markets, and ensure urgent delivery of goods during disruptions—whether tariff-related, geopolitical, or natural. While sea or land transport requires time to adjust, aviation serves as a “shock absorber” for the global economy.

The 2025 Tariff Wave and the “Frontloading” Effect

Julia Sirman’s economic overview highlighted the scale of trade shifts. The most significant factor was the change in U.S. trade policy, where the average import tariff rose to 17% in 2025—the highest level since 1933.

The sharp increase in duties triggered a so-called “frontloading” effect: in the first quarter of 2025, companies rushed to import goods before tariffs came into force, causing U.S. imports to spike and air cargo volumes (measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, CTK) to peak in March, exceeding the previous year’s figures by nearly 40%.

After tariffs were implemented in April, monthly U.S. imports stabilized and even declined by August. However, the impact of tariffs led to massive trade diversion: Chinese exports to the U.S. fell by over 15%, but these losses were offset by increased exports to other Asian countries and, notably, the European Union.

Consequently, air cargo on the Far East–North America route declined, while the Far East–Europe route grew by more than 4 billion CTK, confirming that air transport enabled this strategic rebalancing.

Growth Driven by Value and E-Commerce

IATA analysts emphasize that, although air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume, it represents nearly 25% by value.

Aviation remains the preferred mode for high-value, time-sensitive, and specialized goods such as microchips, pharmaceuticals, precious metals, and products linked to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

Despite an overall slowdown in global trade growth (forecasted at 0.5% in 2026), IATA projects more robust growth for air cargo: 3.1% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

This growth will be supported by the continuing structural shift toward e-commerce, rising demand for high-value goods, and investments in AI technologies. The primary regional drivers remain the Asia-Pacific and Europe.

Path to Excellence: Digitalization and Fair Access

To preserve and enhance flexibility, the air cargo industry must address several systemic challenges. Sullivan identified three key areas for modernization:

Digitalization: The sector still relies heavily on paper processes. In response, IATA has developed the “One Record” standard, creating a single digital language for the industry. This standard provides a single source of verified information, allowing all stakeholders—airlines, freight forwarders, regulators—to exchange data in real time, reducing errors and delays.

Process and Security Harmonization: Current security procedures (e.g., cargo security declarations) are outdated or inconsistently applied, and the lack of uniform cross-border rules slows operations. Modernizing ICAO Annex 18 (Dangerous Goods) and digitizing security declarations are critical steps to maintain speed without compromising safety.

Slot Access: Cargo operators often face unfair treatment in slot allocation at major hubs (e.g., Bogotá, Dubai, Heathrow, Gatwick), where, unlike passenger airlines, they are not granted historical or permanent slots. IATA advocates fair access in line with the Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines (WASG) to allow cargo and passenger carriers to compete on equal terms.

In conclusion, Brendan Sullivan stressed that modernization and flexibility are not optional but essential for survival in today’s trade landscape. “We are not just moving boxes. We are ensuring the resilience of global trade,” he said.