ADB Forecasts Uzbekistan’s Economic Growth at 6.7%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan's economic growth is projected to remain at a high level in the coming years, reaching 6.7% in 2026 and further increasing to 6.8% in 2027, following a robust growth rate of 7.7% in 2025. These estimates were presented by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the April edition of its "Asian Development Outlook" (ADO 2026) report. The forecasts are based on assumptions as of March 10, 2026, and incorporate a scenario involving the early stabilization of the conflict in the Middle East.

According to the report, economic growth in 2025 exceeded expectations due to strong dynamics across all key sectors. The primary driver was the services sector, which expanded by 14.7% through the development of trade, logistics, digital services, and tourism. Industry (excluding construction) grew by 6.8%, while the construction sector demonstrated a 14.2% increase amid active investment in housing and infrastructure. Agriculture also contributed to the expansion, growing by 4.4%.

Kanokpan Lao-Araya, ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan, noted that the country's economy is entering a new period in a steady state, supported by domestic demand, investment, and structural reforms. A key task remains the transition to a more productive growth model with a leading role for the private sector.

Domestic demand became the main factor in economic activity in 2025. Real household incomes increased by 9.2%, and the total volume of investment rose by 10.5% due to enterprises' own funds, household savings, and the influx of foreign direct investment, particularly in industry, logistics, construction, and urban development.

Inflation decreased faster than anticipated, falling to 7.3% in 2025 compared to 9.8% in 2024. This was driven by tight monetary policy, the strengthening of the national currency, and reduced costs. Inflation is expected to continue slowing to 6.5% in 2026 and approach the target level of 5% by 2027, despite the possible impact of energy tariff adjustments and risks from the food market.

Fiscal consolidation also continued, with the state budget deficit narrowing to 2.1% of GDP while maintaining priority social spending. External positions strengthened thanks to growth in exports, tourism revenue, and remittances, while international reserves remained at an adequate level.

Among the key challenges, the ADB highlights the need to accelerate the structural transformation of the economy, including the reform of state-owned enterprises and accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO membership is expected to solidify reforms, enhance competitiveness, diversify exports, and attract higher-quality investment.

The report also points to external risks, including global financial volatility, uncertainty in international trade, and the need to manage fiscal risks associated with state-owned enterprises while maintaining the pace of reforms.